Super Bowl 59 Preview: Key Matchups, X-Factors & Best Bets for Chiefs vs. Eagles

Super Bowl 59 is here! Can the Chiefs make history with a three-peat, or will the Eagles get their redemption? Hosts Brad Fowler and Alex Higdon deliver an extensive breakdown of key matchups, X-factors, and betting picks for the big game. We analyze the Chiefs' run defense, Philly’s ground attack, Mahomes under pressure, and the Eagles' dominant D-line. Plus, we’ve got multiple prop bet picks and our final predictions—can Saquon Barkley and the Philly defense be the difference-maker, or do Mahomes and Andy Reid find a way yet again? Don’t miss this in-depth Super Bowl preview!

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Transcript:
​Welcome to the Pint Glass Football Podcast.
0:15
I'm your host, Brad Fowler. What's up, PGF Nation? Super Bowl 59 is here. We've got the full breakdown for you guys. The Chiefs are chasing that historic three-peat. The Eagles are looking for redemption. We're going to cover the key matchups, X-Factors, and of course, we'll have our best bets.
0:36
I've got a bunch of prop bets for you guys as well. Joining me as always, of course, though, my co-host, Alex Higdon. Alex, what is going on?
0:44
Yeah, hey, Brad, I know we missed a week. Everybody's been like, hey, where you guys been? We had some personal matters to tend to, but we're back, ready to break down this Super Bowl matchup.
0:54
Yeah, personal stuff going on. Life happens, unfortunately, sometimes. And, you know, once in a while, there's things in life that are bigger than being on a podcast. Just to be honest, we know that. Family comes first. So I apologize, guys, for the short hiatus. But if you guys haven't already subscribed to the newsletter, I hope you did.
1:13
I did drop an article for you guys during the week just to keep a little bit of content out there. I put out some grades on all these new NFL coaching hires. So definitely go check that out, pintglassfootball.com. If you haven't already, you can see how I graded each one of these coaching hires.
1:30
You might be surprised by who got A's and who didn't. I'll just say one team got an F. You might be able to guess who that was, but definitely go check that out. But Alex, it's time to shift here to the biggest game of the year, the biggest game in all of sports, Super Bowl 59.
1:49
Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, they were kind of on a collision course all year, but it feels different right now, Alex, because the Kansas City Chiefs are now public enemy number one. And look, the detractors, they hate the way they walk, they hate the way they talk, they hate the way they dress, and They hate Mahomes' wife.
2:08
They hate Taylor Swift. Look, Kelsey isn't taking it serious anymore, it seems like. Mahomes is flopping. The refs are giving them all the flags. Look, I get it. Hate or love them, they're going for three straight.
2:22
I know I get it. You hated the Yankees. You hate the Warriors or Lakers or whoever's on a dynasty run at any point in time, whichever respect the sport. You hated the Patriots and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and everything. So I think this is the Kansas City. going into that phase.
2:40
And to be honest with you, people say that they're tired or they have fatigue. It's really hard to hate the Chiefs. You don't have Spygate. You don't have Tom Brady where people think he's arrogant or anything like that. So it's hard to hate because Andy Reid is like a what a Pillsbury dope boy that
2:59
walks around in Hawaiian shirts and want to eat cheeseburgers. But I guess, alas, they're into this where it's like I think it's more about fatigue. There's three P. I mean, hey, listen, I would like to see history, but I think that I think the hate is just more from fatigue.
3:14
Not that they hate any particular player or coach.
3:18
Yeah, and look, it's sports hate, right? It's different than real hate, of course. And that's what fans do. That's what people do. And I think you're right. I think you hit it on the head. I think there's a bit of fatigue here. You know, I think this team just winning and winning and winning and just, you know,
3:31
going for a third straight Super Bowl and being in these big games every single year, it feels like it kind of starts to wear you out a little bit unless you're a Chiefs fan. You know, it does get a little old. I think the Kelsey stuff with Taylor Swift has definitely annoyed a lot of people.
3:46
Look, myself included. I find it irritating every time there's a big play. We have to see her reaction to it. Pretty irritating if you're a football guy when we know that that's catering to a different audience of viewers. And I think the flags.
4:01
I think them getting the flags and all the talk around them getting all these flags – That is starting to get really noisy in the media and among fans. That seems irritating, too, to a lot of people. And, look, I get it because I talked about it recently.
4:16
I think it has gotten to the point where you've got to kind of question, like, why are they getting every call, it seems like. But if you can kind of get past that part of it, because, look, I don't think Philly, unless you're an Eagles fan, I don't know if they're the most likable team either, right?
4:29
Like, their coach... is yelling at fans. And there's a lot of people that are critical of him and his attitude and the whole demeanor. And let's face it, there's a history with Philly fans not exactly being the most classy. So I don't know if they're the most lovable team either. So this is a matchup.
4:48
It's kind of a weird matchup as far as there's not a lovable kind of national team in this one that people can put their arms around. But I do think we can put our arms around what could be a great, great matchup.
5:01
And I want to look at these different matchups and kind of look at this game in depth, Alex, because of course that's what we do here at PGF. None of this surface level stuff. We're going to go deep here. So for me, Alex, I want to start here. Kansas city's run defense,
5:16
I think could be a concern in this game because if we look at, if we go back just to that AFC championship game, They really struggled to contain James Cook. 85 yards, two touchdowns on 13 carries. Probably should have had a lot more carries in that game. And maybe that game plays out a little differently.
5:34
And here's another key thing I'm looking at, Alex. The Chiefs have really struggled this year against inside zone running schemes. And if you look at the Eagles, they're one of the best inside zone rushing teams in the NFL. I think there's no doubt about it that slowing down Saquon Barkley is an absolute
5:54
must for KC in this game.
5:56
Even just when you look at how the Eagles want to win and what their offense is about, they're at their best when they limit Jalen Hurts to 150 yards or less throwing the ball and they run. So obviously the game plan is defensively is, hey, man, stack the box and force Jalen Hurts to run.
6:14
I mean, excuse me, force Jalen Hurts to throw. Obviously, you have to worry about him running, but force him to throw and see what happens. You're more than likely going to get him to force a turnover. But yeah, obviously, stopping Saquon Barkley is number one in the game plan for what Steve Spegmola has
6:32
set up coming into this week.
6:34
Yeah, and I think it goes to something else that you just talked about here, because I think we know Jalen Hurts is limited as a passer, and we know they want to run the ball, and they want to continue to run the ball, and they want to use Jalen Hurts in the running game,
6:48
and they want to continually be ahead of schedule. They want to be in second and third and short. That is really where the Eagles are most dangerous. And the key to really slowing down this team is to force them into third and long. But that's a lot easier said than done.
7:03
Because if you can get Jalen Hurts in obvious passing situations, he's really struggled under pressure this year. And that's part of his game that has actually regressed significantly, Alex. I dove into the numbers yesterday. He's taken a big step back this year when under pressure.
7:20
And if you look at the Chiefs, they rank 13th in the NFL in blitz rate. So Steve Spagnuolo, we know this is a guy who not only dials up the blitz a lot, but he has an ability to really time the blitz. And he really excels at scheming those unblocked blitzers. And getting those free rushers.
7:40
But you've got to get them in third and long to really have that effect. If they're constantly in second and third and short, it makes it really hard for Spagnuolo to kind of utilize those types of blitzes.
7:51
That's the, as they say, the game within the game, right? Where you're looking at all these little intricacies of the game and this inside zone. And it's how do we obviously seal off Chris Jones? Because that's the guy that's going to cause the havoc.
8:05
If they try to do anything on the inside and trying to seal him off to get to the runs that they want to get to, and how can they stop Saquon Barkley? But I just think that what they're going to do, and I think there's going to be some key moments.
8:18
The game within the game is going to come on critical third down plays to me, because I always say, if you can withstand, it's like Mike Tyson's punch out of those of us. I'm aging myself, but it is what it is. if you can withstand the barrage that Saquon Barkley, because he's a home run hitter,
8:36
he can get a hundred yards, but there's a difference between getting a hundred, 150 yards, but there's a difference between your longest run being 16 yards and your longest run having a 50 yard run here and a 68 yard run here. If you can limit that,
8:50
and they methodically have to go down the field as opposed to big home runs, I think that's what their Chiefs are going to try to do. It's not about limiting Saquon Barkley and not letting him get the home run. Because if I'm not mistaken, the Chiefs are the surest tackling team.
9:07
If they're not, they're definitely top three surest tackling team in the league. So any of those normal plays that Saquon may bounce off of, like he did against Washington and a couple other teams, I don't think he'll be bouncing around the place like a pinballer than running free against the Chiefs.
9:23
Saquon Barkley is the most important player in this game on both sides of the field. And the reason I say that is because his success is so pivotal for the Eagles to win this game, and it's so pivotal for Kansas City to limit him if they're going to win this game.
9:38
I just think he is such a key, key part. And when you look at this Philly ground game, so they ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns. And look, it's not just Barkley. It's Jalen Hurts, too. And we know how much of a threat he can be on the ground,
9:54
especially in those third and fourth and shorts, the tush push, and just keeping drives alive and just moving the chains. This is a team that averaged just under five yards per carry. And to your point about Saquon Barkley and the home run hitting ability,
10:08
Saquon Barkley led all running backs this year with 10 touchdown runs of 20 or more yards. That's more than twice as many as any other running back in the NFL. So you want to talk about big time home run hitting the Billy? Absolutely. This guy gets to the second level. It's lights out.
10:25
You're not going to bring this guy down. That's really the danger. You cannot let this guy get going and get into the open field because once that happens, it's over. I mean, he's been so good and so explosive, and the Eagles led the NFL this year in time of possession,
10:38
and I think that really aligns with what they want to do and their game plan is just to have those long, clock-consuming drives. That's going to be the key to this game is, once again, slowing down Saquon Barkley, limiting his damage that he does in this game, and trying to make Philly one-dimensional.
10:56
Everybody has tried to do it this year. Nobody has really been successful. So that's going to be a major, major challenge. I think it's really going to come down to that front four for the Chiefs, those linebackers, Nick Bolton and company, Chris Jones and company, Carl Loftus. These guys, it's got to be a team effort.
11:13
And they're going to have to really try to slow down this running attack because I think if Philly can run the ball consistently this game, I think they have a pack to win this game. But another key matchup for me, Alex, in this game, the Eagles defensive front versus the Chiefs offensive line.
11:29
I think this could be a potential mismatch in this game. How do you see the matchup here? And do you think that the Eagles can find success against this Chiefs line that really has been spotty this year?
11:44
So the Chiefs O-line, the strength of the Chiefs O-line is the interior, right? It's the right guard, center, left guard. Tooney, Creed Humphries, and Trey Smith. We know Jawan Taylor, and they've been having issues at the left tackle so much that they've moved Joe Tooney from that left guard position out to left tackle. Now,
12:02
it remains to be seen how they're going to run that because the strength of the Eagles defensive line is in the interior. They don't get a lot of real pressure from the outside. I know Brandon Graham, says he may suit up. We don't know still. There's Nolan Smith out there. There's Bryce Huff out there.
12:19
Those guys haven't really been, you know, living up to the hype that people thought of though. Nolan Smith has flashed. It's really truly been coming from Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. So that literally at that point, depending on what they do with the, at the, um, on the interior, um,
12:33
line for the Chiefs, that becomes strength against strength. I'm going to lean on those guys in these big games against Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. And Jalen Carter, who hasn't seen this before, Jordan Davis, who's really just a run stuffer. I'm going to lean on the Chiefs offensive line there.
12:47
So I think in order for this to work, they're going to have to get their pass rush from the outside, depending, again, really putting emphasis on, I don't know how they're going to play Joe Tooney because he's been playing left tackle the last maybe five to six weeks, I think.
13:01
So if they kick him back inside, that's now, now you're going to get strength against strength. And I don't know about Nolan Smith and Bryce Huff on the outside, if they're going to be able to generate enough pass rush, if those guys in the middle are, you know, in the trenches battling.
13:16
Yeah. I think this could be a mismatch here because this Chiefs offensive line has really declined this season. Mahomes got sacked 36 times this year. That's by far the most in his career. And a lot of it has to do with those tackles. Those tackles were a problem this year.
13:32
And they're going up against a pass rushing defensive front from this Eagles team that is not only elite, but they're deep. And Nolan Smith has emerged as one of the best and most disruptive edge rushers in the NFL. Jalen Carter has become unblockable. I mean, this guy is a wrecking ball in the middle of this defensive line.
13:52
Guys like Josh Sweat, Milton Williams. I mean, this team is so deep. And they rotate guys. They stay fresh. I think this could be a real problem for them. I think the Chiefs are going to have to be able... to run the ball and take some pressure off Mahomes in this passing game.
14:07
Because kind of similarly to what we mentioned a minute ago with Jalen Hurts and trying to get them in third and longs, I really don't like the Chiefs here. I don't think it's favorable for them to be in third and long. Now, granted, I think Mahomes is obviously a much, much better quarterback. than Jalen Hurts.
14:21
But if you let this team get in third, or if you get this team in third and long situations and obvious pass situations, I think it could really spell problems for that Chiefs O-line. Now, what about some key individual matchups? Who are some matchups that you're circling, Alex,
14:36
that you really are watching for in this game that you think could really, you know, help decide this ballgame?
14:42
So here's my thing. Zach Bond is up for defensive player of the year. I know Cooper DeJount is a bigger guy. You may try to put him and try and bracket Travis Kelsey or try and have him take Travis Kelsey one-on-one a few times, but N'Kobe Dean is out.
14:58
So now Oren Burks and now you have possibly Jeremiah Trotter Jr. that's going to get a lot of snaps at those positions. And I can imagine that Andy Reid is licking his chops when he decides to go out there and I'm going to put these speed guys out there and Hollywood Brown out there or whatever,
15:14
maybe kick Xavier Worthy inside and cause a lot of confusion for a lot of these linebackers that are going to be on the field, which is where you can get exploited at because that, you know, Zach Bourne coming in definitely tore it up this year, well-deserved to be up for a defensive player of the year,
15:30
but he's only one guy. So it depends on what the Eagles do on their side, and I know that they've really upped the ante on their secondary side, bringing in Dujan as well as Quentin Mitchell, who was, as far as I'm concerned,
15:43
should be second in rookie of the year conversations for the most part for how he played. Going up against an elite play caller, a guy that designed, that sees something, that goes with his finger in the dirt and draws up plays, a la what he did against San Francisco the first time they met,
15:58
or if he goes and makes halftime adjustments and starts exploiting things. I have to take that into consideration. Nick Sirianni, Kellen Moore don't belong in the same room where Andy Reid and Spagnuolo are.
16:12
Yeah, I think coaching, absolutely no doubt about it. I think coaching, you have to give the edge here to Reed and Spags. You've got the best offensive mind in the game. You have the best defensive mind in the game. Now, Vic Fangio might very well be the second best defensive mind in the game.
16:27
So that's where this battle gets really fun. I think they, on paper, the Eagles still have the edge defensively, though. None of these wide receivers scare me for... for Mahomes and the Chiefs. I mean, this isn't an explosive offense at all. When you look at the matchups here with Darius Slay, Quinnia Mitchell, Cooper DeGene, Isaiah Rogers, C.J.
16:45
Gardner, Johnson, they have the secondary to absolutely slow down this attack that really hasn't been explosive all year. I think this is a game that probably leans towards the under, and I think both teams have the defense to make plays. Now, a pick six, a scoop and score fumble, something like that,
17:02
that could really be the difference in this game. It really could come down to A key play, a big turnover, something like that could really be the difference in this game because I really don't see either one of these quarterbacks lighting it up in this game.
17:16
Now, if we're going to go into a specific matchup that I'm really excited to watch, A.J. Brown versus Trent McDuffie. is going to be get your popcorn ready. Because what a matchup this is between two all-pro level players. And the thing I really like about this matchup is McDuffie is one of the rare
17:35
corners in this league that will travel. So I'll be shocked if he doesn't shadow A.J. Brown exclusively in this game. And I think the Chiefs, for two reasons, I think they're going to keep him mostly one-on-one with very little help. I think they have that level of trust in Trent McDuffie to begin with,
17:54
but I think they're also going to have so much focus on trying to slow down Barkley in this running attack that he's going to be on an island. Can the Eagles take advantage of some of those one-on-one shots downfield? That is going to be such a fun matchup.
18:08
Do we trust Jalen Hurts to make these plays? And that's where I come in. Even if it's a great call, I don't trust Jalen Hurts. I don't trust him because they don't trust him.
18:20
Yeah, I mean, between the two quarterbacks, it's clear, no doubt about it, who I trust more. Now, granted, Hurts did play pretty well the last time these teams played in the Super Bowl. And here's another key stat to watch here, because I talked about staying ahead of the chains in this game and how important it'll be.
18:36
I mentioned Jalen Hurts and how he's regressed as a passer, especially under pressure. He's really struggled. Well, Mahomes this year, his passer rating has dropped over 20 points this year. went under pressure, and he threw four interceptions when under pressure this season. So once again,
18:55
I think Philly being able to try to keep Mahomes in that offense one-dimensional I think is going to be pivotal in this game. I'm looking for Pacheco and Hunt. Those guys are going to have to be big in this game. I'm not saying that they have to be dominant. I don't think that'll happen.
19:11
I think this defense is too good for them to be dominant, but I think they're going to have to have balance to really slow down this pass rush and give Mahomes some easy opportunities down the field because I don't think this Kansas City team wants to be in third and long with these pass rushers up front.
19:28
Since he's transformed into this new Patrick Mahomes where he's trying not to make mistakes and trust his defense where he doesn't feel he has to go out there and make every play because the defense is now at an elite status where he can trust
19:42
that they'll get to stop or they'll even get a turnover and give the ball back to him. You know, so watching Patrick Mahomes, I think I've said it before. I think this is the best I've seen Patrick Mahomes. And when I say that means it's understanding the game that there's certain things that you can't do.
19:57
There's a lot of gunslingers because Patrick Mahomes initially coming out was a gunslinger. But there's a lot of things that gunslingers, they will still continue to try to make plays. no matter what. And in this instance, when Patrick Mahomes gets into the playoffs and then throughout the playoffs, continuing to the Super Bowl,
20:13
he curbs himself on how he plays the game. He doesn't take big time chances. However, he's making the big plays.
20:21
Yeah, he's clutch. There's no doubt about it. I mean, that's what makes this matchup so scary is because I think a lot of things on paper would actually point to the Eagles in this game. And And I went into this thinking that the Chiefs probably had the edge on paper. And quite frankly,
20:35
when I did the homework and really dove into this, it actually leans a lot more Philly. I think Philly has a lot more of an edge here on paper. But Holmes is kind of the ultimate X factor because as far as him being clutch and him being cool under pressure and making the big plays,
20:51
he's never been better. He's always had that clutch gene. But as a quarterback, I think he's actually regressed the last two years. He has not been able to elevate these receivers and elevate this passing game. Now, I think there's a reason why he's had to scramble more in this postseason than any other playoff run,
21:11
and I think it's because the plays down the field just aren't there. So that's something to watch for in this game, too, that is really interesting because we've seen him run so much. What do the Eagles do to combat that? How often do you see them spy Mahomes? How much attention are they going to pay to Mahomes,
21:28
especially in those certain longs where, look, most of his big plays have come on the ground than through the air in this postseason. But I said the word X factor. Alex, who's your X factor in this game?
21:41
Well, offensively, I'll say on the Chiefs side, offensively, it's going to be DeAndre Hopkins. I think he's been put on the shelf a little bit. I'll use that word. By Andy Reid, just waiting to pull out some of these plays that he's been wanting to pull out for him because he was with them for 10 games.
22:00
Three games over 50 yards. I'm looking at him and I'm saying to myself, okay, what does Andy Reid do? You know, one of our friends pointed out, Quick pointed out that they hadn't been using the end around a lot all season. And then all of a sudden against Buffalo, they pull it out.
22:14
All of a sudden against Buffalo, they pulled out that play with Piran that they didn't play. They went back because I went back and I watched a few people. Then I kind of charted over the last few games. He had not, they had not run that play.
22:25
They have been saving a lot of their plays and just really doing whatever they need to do over the past few weeks, hoping that they just continue to win and stay in position because they know, to your point, the receivers are just truly straight line guys. They don't have a route runner out there.
22:46
And then you pull out certain plays. You pull out the one play they did against the Bills with Juju Smith-Schuster. And those plays have just simply worked. It's just really on the defense to stop those plays or to figure out what's going on. And they simply have not been able to for now three seasons.
23:00
This Chiefs team is well-disciplined, well-coached, Aside from all the chatter that we keep hearing about the refs and everything, they're just disciplined. This is just obviously the Patriots 2.0. They're very disciplined and they execute at a very high level.
23:17
My X factor for the Chiefs is on the defensive side of the ball, and I think it's George Karloftis. Now, look, Chris Jones is going to get so much attention. We know that. He's basically a guy that demands a double team. But George Karloftis has been playing quietly at a very high level, nine tackles,
23:35
three sacks in the playoffs alone. So this is a guy who's really starting to come on, and I think he's going to be key in this game because I think they're going to need that edge pressure from him in some crucial situations. He's going to have to be a guy to watch in this game.
23:51
Now, my X factor for the Eagles is Dallas Goddard. I think that if you look at the numbers here, the chiefs are pretty average. I don't want to say they're bad. They're just kind of middle of the road versus tight ends. It's been one spot on this defense that you can really attack.
24:07
And I think once again, there's going to be so much focus on star stopping Saquon Barkley and, And the corners, of course, are going to have their hands full with even just the threat of A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith. It's going to leave some space in the middle of this field.
24:23
Dallas Goddard had a big game against Washington. I think he could be due for a big game here. I think he is a key player and an X factor to watch for the Eagles in this game.
24:34
Yeah, I can see that. And again, I think everything just comes down to how they're going to play the game. If you're telling me you're going to try and play everybody straight up and see what you can do against Saquon and leave a lot of one-on-ones on the outside with Jalen Watson and Trent McDuffie,
24:47
it'll be interesting to see how much room is truly there versus if they try to play their typical 4-3 defense or big nickel defense, whichever one they want to go with. You know what? Dallas Guard would be the X factor there because obviously A.J. Brown is going to draw attention. Devonta Smith is going to draw attention.
25:04
But on the Eagles side, I think that their X factor is going to be Jalen Hurts' legs. I think because they're going to make an emphasis to really put the clamps down on Saquon early, that that's going to give him... a lot of time to make some runs to the outside because everybody's going to really
25:22
be focused on Saquon and those I would I would me personally I would if I was Kelly Moore I would definitely have some of those bootlegs in there obviously play action is going to be a thing but I will have definitely have a lot of bootlegs to get him
25:33
outside on the on the edge by himself where he can use his legs to do something so I think specifically his not just Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts legs will be the x-factor for the Eagles
25:44
If they can get the ground game going and Barkley can really be a threat on the ground, that is going to open up the play-action passing game for Jalen Hurts. And Jalen Hurts is one of the best play-action passers in the NFL. He has a top-five passer rating off of play-action. On the opposite side, the Chiefs
26:03
are one of the worst defenses in the NFL defending play-action passes. So that is something I am really watching for. But the only way you can get to those play-action plays is when you run the ball with success. So, once again, the ability to run the ball is going to be so big for Philly in this game.
26:22
We know... You said Jalen Hurts with his legs is always a threat, but I think if they can run the ball with the two of them and really stay ahead of the chains, that is going to set up some of those deep shots to guys like A.J. Brown, possibly Dallas Goddard over the middle, and Smith. So really,
26:37
really key here because that is something that this Chiefs defense has really struggled against. Did you know that Pint Glass Football is more than just this podcast? We have an exclusive newsletter. Sign up for free at pintglassfootball.com to receive articles and insights delivered straight to your inbox. But wait, there's more.
26:58
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27:20
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28:47
Download the SeatGeek app and remember to enter the code PGFPOD to grab your $20 discount. Alex, we know the turnover battle is huge. I looked at these two teams and it's strength versus strength there because Philadelphia is plus eight in turnover differential in the playoffs. That is the second best ever entering a Super Bowl.
29:11
So pretty impressive what they've done there. And on the Chiefs side, they only have had one turnover in their last nine games. So they're doing an unbelievable job taking care of the ball as well. That Eagles defense, it has been taking the ball away as well as anybody in the league.
29:26
20 takeaways, 20 in their last six games. So once again, you've got strength on strength here. But I think who wins this turnover battle is going to be huge because I mentioned it a little bit ago. I think a pick six, a scoop and score, a big defensive play could be the difference in this game.
29:44
My thing is the game within the game. You know, where's Joe Tooney going to be playing? A player that nobody's thinking about. We're going to kick you back inside because that's where the biggest problem is. And we're going to trust, I guess,
29:57
the rookie from BYU out there or Wanya Morris out there on that left side and leave Jawan, you know, Jawan Taylor. Hopefully he's not kicking his leg up too early on the outside with those guys to see kind of what's happening there.
30:12
All right, let's make some betting picks here. Let's get into some prop bets because these are always fun, and we know Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest betting day of the year. So let's try to pick some winners here, Alex. I'll give you my first prop bet that I really like in this game.
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Patrick Mahomes over 24.5 pass completions. I think they're going to have trouble running the ball, and I think Mahomes is going to have to throw more than they think going into this game. i liked the over on the completions for mahomes what do you think yeah i i actually
30:45
agree with that i think um death by a thousand cuts i think we're gonna see p ryan p ryan might be actual good prop bet i don't know what he's looking like on what you're looking at but p ryan might be actually a good prop bet you like p ryan over
30:57
on catches what's his what is the uh well yeah what is it i bet is that like what one and a half or two i'm gonna i'll take the over
31:04
I've got DeAndre Hopkins over 1.5 catches, and I like him over 11.5 yards receiving. I think he gets a couple balls in this game, and maybe one big play down the middle, key third down conversion, something in this game where I think he gets a splash play.
31:23
and gets over that 11.5, and I would not be surprised if he gets a couple catches. Like you said, he's been almost invisible, it feels like, in this offense. I think they find a way. I'm not saying he's going to be a Super Bowl MVP candidate or anything like that,
31:37
but I do think he's a guy that maybe sneaks into the stat line here and has some success in this game. I'll give you another prop I really like, Alex. How about Saquon Barkley over 2.5 catches?
31:49
Oh, yeah, I think that's easy. Real quick, just to take a step back, I would also take DeAndre Hopkins on an anytime touchdown. But yeah, definitely easily Saquon Barkley on a couple of dump-offs from Hurts for sure.
32:00
Yeah, what's the line on the anytime touchdown? What does that pay out? That's probably got to pay out pretty well.
32:06
It's plus 500 for DeAndre Hopkins.
32:09
You know what? Long shot bet, I like it. You know, you got to play some of these anytime touchdowns. And look, in the Super Bowl, It's weird how it works, but a lot of times it's not always the quote unquote star players that you think of. It's usually the third wide receiver. It's usually the backup tight end.
32:26
It's usually a guy that you're not really thinking of that tends to score in these games for some reason. And maybe that's just because the defense is so honed in on the quote unquote stars. Maybe that's why we see this so often in these big games. But yeah, I think a guy like DeAndre Hopkins,
32:40
kind of a forgotten man, I could see that for sure. Now here's another prop that I like here. Jalen Hurts, under 18.5 pass completions. And I also am going to take the under on 212.5 yards passing. And it's not even necessarily a bet against Hurts. I think they're going to have success running the ball here.
33:02
And I don't think they're going to have to throw that much. I think it's going to be pick your spots with Hertz. So I like the under on both of those 18 and a half seems like a lot. I think let's put it this way.
33:15
If Hertz has to throw over 18 and a half times, I think Philly's in big trouble in this game.
33:20
Yep, totally agree. That's why I'm taking over. He's going to have over 18 and a half.
33:24
Now, I mentioned Patrick Mahomes over 24 and a half pass completions. I also like the over 251 and a half yards passing. Once again, I like Kareem Hunt. I love Isaiah Pacheco. I just don't know how much success they have versus this number one defense in the NFL.
33:42
I think they're going to have trouble running the ball in this game. And I think Patrick Mahomes is going to have to, like you said, have to rely on a lot of short passing, a lot of underneath stuff to kind of keep the chains moving.
33:55
So I think this could be a game where he throws a little more than they'd like, and he hits that number here. And it's also why I like this prop, Alex. Isaiah Pacheco under five and a half rushing attempts. They're really going to struggle to run the ball in this game once again.
34:10
So shorting Pacheco on his rushing attempts.
34:15
I'm actually going to go up on his rushing attempts because I think the two weeks off has kind of – because I think he only had about maybe seven carries that Bill's game, if I'm not mistaken. He was just coming back, so I didn't use him a lot with Kareem Hunt.
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But I think they're going to do a lot with those because those are really downhill runners, tough runners. I know Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter, but I think they're going to have to – No, let me rephrase that. Andy V is going to force the run to make sure that they get their attempts because
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they're going to have to in order to do the things that we're talking about Patrick Mahomes doing, at least from my perspective, in order for them to win.
34:48
Yeah, I can see that because we talked about it earlier. I am going to take the under, but I wouldn't be surprised if they run the ball, even if they're not having a lot of success. I could see them running the ball just to try to keep the balance in this offense
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and to try to limit those pass rushers. because you don't want to turn into a one-dimensional offense versus this elite secondary and the pass rush from Philly. I think Andy Reid knows that. I think that's why we're going to see a lot of quick passing game, and we're going to see a lot of runs,
35:17
even if they're limited. We're going to see a lot of running, I think, possibly to try to offset some of that. So I don't hate that prediction at all, Alex. When the game gets tight, And it seems like it will. Look, Kansas City wins these tight games, and the Chiefs are 12-0 in one-score games this season,
35:35
that is. That is the most ever in a single season in NFL history. I get the feeling you're leaning Chiefs here, Alex. Are you taking Chiefs minus 125 on the money line? Are you laying the points here? What's your pick here for this game?
35:50
I'm laying the points and I'm taking the Chiefs. I just, I will not bet. He's entered that Tom Brady rare era for me where I'm just not going to bet against him in these games. And I'll go there. If I lose, I lose. And I'm okay with that. But Andy Reid, again, I am taking Patrick Mahomes,
36:06
Andy Reid, and Spagnuolo in halftime adjustments to beat the Chiefs.
36:10
Or to beat the Eagles. I'm sorry.
36:12
To beat the Eagles. To beat the Eagles. Beating themselves is funny. But yeah, to beat the Eagles.
36:17
Yeah, I'm going to go, man, I'll tell you, Alex. So when prepping for this episode, I already had it made up in my mind that I was taking the Chiefs because for the simple reason that, like I said, this team is just so good in these tight games. They always find a way to win.
36:36
It's so hard to bet against the coaching of Andy Reid and Spagnuolo and the clutchness of Mahomes. Even though, like I said, I'm not sure he's as good a quarterback as he was two years ago. But that clutch never left. And if anything, he's as clutch as ever. So if this game is tight, it's absolutely Kansas City.
36:55
It's so tough, Alex, because on paper, almost everything is telling me Eagles here. I feel like there's a lot more mismatches on paper that favor the Eagles, and I was kind of surprised by that, Alex. Like I said, when I jumped into this game and did a lot of homework for this,
37:11
I was actually surprised at how many matchups I saw that kind of favored Philly in this game. I'm going to go against the Chiefs, though, and I'll probably regret it because I think in a close game, I think the Chiefs are going to find a way to win this game
37:27
Yeah, you got no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. That was not a 40 slip, but continue.
37:36
You're right. It was not. I'm going to take the Eagles money line plus 125. I like the value here because I think this is an even matchup regardless. And look, I won't be the least bit surprised if the Chiefs will win. But I think if I'm going to take a betting side,
37:51
I think there's just more value taking the Eagles because I think the Eagles can absolutely win this game. I really have a hard time picking them in this game because, like I said, the head coaching, the quarterback play, it's tough. It's really tough. But I think Saquon Barkley is the difference maker here.
38:08
This guy has just been completely unstoppable, and I don't know if the Chiefs are going to be able to slow down this running game. The last time these teams met in the Super Bowl, Miles Sanders really hurt Philly and just 16 yards on seven carries and a fumble. That was the difference in that game.
38:27
I think Barkley gives the Eagles what they were missing the last time they played. This guy has been so unstoppable, and I just don't think they have an answer for him. I think the other key to this game is I think there's an advantage on the line of scrimmage, and I've said it a million times, PGF Nation,
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you guys know, I'll probably say it a million more before this podcast is through. The game is always won in the trenches. And I think the Eagles have the advantage on the D-line and the advantage on the O-line. I just, I can't bet against them in this one, even though I know
39:00
I'm going to regret it because somehow Mahomes will pull a rabbit out of his hat in the last moments. Andy Reid will have some play call that they're not ready for, and it'll be a walk-in touchdown to end the game. I can already see it. Man, what a Super Bowl this should be. Alex.
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And look, guys, we're going to put a bow on season six. And I got to say, guys, it's been an absolute blast. I'm so excited. The season we've had, the growth we've had. PGF Nation, you guys have been riding with us. We started the YouTube channel this year. We've been slowly getting traction over there.
39:36
So I hope you guys are checking out the content on that side as well. Of course, the newsletter continues to get more and more traction, pintglassfootball.com. And guys, season seven, Alex is back, of course, myself, and we're going to have NFL draft coverage like we always do. We are going to be looking at all these prospects.
39:56
Alex, I know you're already looking at tape. You've been sending me tape. I've been looking at tape. I'm looking at all this stuff. I'm watching senior bowl practices, Alex. I can't wait. for the Super Bowl Sunday, but I also can't wait to shift gears and really get into these draft prospects with you in April.
40:13
Yeah, Brad, kind of, Senior Bowl just passed. That's all I have to say. Senior Bowl just passed, and there's, shout out to Arkansas State.
40:21
If you know, you know, but we'll be talking about these guys, man. It's going to be so much fun, guys. So if you haven't already, make sure you are subscribed to the podcast, guys, because after the Super Bowl, we're going to take a little break. We come back for season seven of PGF, like I said,
40:39
in April with tons of draft coverage and start to get ready for the next season. Man, it's been fun, Alex. I can't wait to do it again.
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Thanks for listening to the Pint Glass Football Podcast. Be sure to subscribe and follow us on Twitter at PGFPodcast.
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