S4E14: College Football Super Conferences and NFL Betting with guest David Bearman

On this episode host Brad Fowler gives his thoughts on UCLA and USC moving to the Big Ten and the shockwaves it has sent through college football, after that he interviews David Bearman the Deputy Editor of Sports Betting at ESPN, to talk NFL futures, over/under season win totals, MVP award odds and more!

Today's Guest

David Bearman

David Bearman is the Deputy Editor of Sports Betting at ESPN. You can find his work on ESPN.com/Chalk and ESPN's "Daily Wager" TV show at 6-7 p.m. ET Monday through Friday.

Here are the questions we asked David:

• It's never too early to start making some futures bets on the NFL. Most books have the Bills as the Super Bowl favorites, What do you make of the Bills being the favorites after they failed to even reach the AFC Championship last year? 

• Once we get past Buffalo, the Bucs are +750, followed by the Chiefs +1000, Packers +1100, defending champs the Rams at +1100, AFC West Chargers and Broncos both +1600, so where do you see alot of value? Who are some teams in the 2nd tier or 3rd tier that you think could still win the Super Bowl, and pay off big for bettors?

• Let's look at Week 1, some great matchups to kick off the season. Some lines that stood out to me are Giants +6.5 at Tennessee, Saints are 4 point favorites on the road in Atlanta, 49ers are 6 point favorites on the road in Chicago, lots of interesting lines, what ones stand out to you? 

• Like we covered earlier, Bills are the Super Bowl favorites and QB Josh Allen is the MVP favorite, followed by Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady and Justin Herbert to round out the top 5. The next tier is Burrow, Wilson and Stafford all getting +1200 odds or better. From a betting standpoint, who are some guys you would want to bet? and is there a long shot MVP you like this year?

• Lets look at the Over/Under Season win totals. No surprise, Bills, Bucs, Packers are all projected at 11 wins or better, a large group of teams in the 10 win category. Saints at 8 wins to me seems generous, Giants at 7 wins is a bit surprising and alot of buzz about the Jets at 5.5 and people taking the over. What are your thoughts on the win totals and what are some bets you like?

• OPOY/DPOY are always popular futures bets, on offense Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor are favorites, I'm surprised to see Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry behind them with age and injury concerns, George Kittle right behind them is interesting. Do you lean favorites here or do you see some names with more value down the board? 

• Who are some name you like for DPOY? Last years winner T.J. Watt seems to be a heavy favorite to repeat. Micah Parsons and Aaron Donald are distant 2nd and 3rd best odds. Who should we watch out for here?

• I'm shocked to see Kenny Pickett as the favorite for OROY. Drake London after him followed by Treylon Burks and Jets RB Breece Hall. Deep rookie class, where you play and your opportunities play a big factor, what are you thoughts on OROY?

• DROY odds are led by the top DEs from this class in Aiden Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Travon Walker, but safety Kyle Hamilton is also high on the list, stats and exposure play a role here usually, are those DEs the place to bet are is there other positions that could have better stats that end up winning it like Micah Parsons did at LB last year?

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